INFLATION TARGETING IN EMERGING MARKET ECONOMY: THE NIGERIAN EXPERIENCE (2005-2016) – Complete Project Material

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ABSTRACT

This
work examined inflation targeting in emerging economies: evidence from Nigeria.
This was motivated by the need to understand the adoption of inflation
targeting as a framework for the control of inflation in Nigeria and how it has
influenced productivity in Nigeria. Ex-post facto research design was adopted
which enabled the researcher to gather secondary data from CBN statistical
bulletin 2016 from 2005 to 2016. The data collected was analysed using multiple
regression results and this was done in order to achieve the following research
objectives earlier raised in the study: to examine the relationship between
growth rate of money supply and inflation rate in Nigeria; to determine the
relationship between cash reserve ratio and inflation rate in Nigeria; to
access the relationship between monetary policy rate and inflation rate in
Nigeria; to examine the relationship between interest rate and inflation rate
in Nigeria; to determine the relationship between treasury bills rate and
inflation rate in Nigeria and to examine the relationship between productivity
and inflation targeting in Nigeria. From the analysis, the findings made
include that growth of money supply has a positive and significant relationship
with inflation; interest rate has a positive and significant relationship with
inflation rate; cash reserve ratio has a negative and significant relationship
with inflation rate and that both money supply growth and interest rate affects
real GDP in Nigeria. It was concluded that inflation targeting has no
significant effect on inflation rate but that the control of such aggregates
such as money supply and interest rate can help bring down inflation and that
inflation targeting impacts on productivity. Recommendations made include the
widening of the scope of inflation targeting, the effective control of both
money supply and interest rates in order to reduce inflation and to enhance productivity.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CHAPTER ONE

                                                           INTRODUCTION

1.1            
Background
to the Study

In most countries of the world and particularly in
Nigeria, the economic policy makers such as Central Banks amongst others have
come to the realization of the need of pursuing price stability as their
primary objective. Price stability is generally assumed to mean having a low
level of price fluctuations and the achievement of stable inflation rate in an
economy. This situation has become necessary because of the inherent negative
effects of high inflation in an economy. To a developing economy like the
Nigerian economy, high inflationary trends would be considered disastrous if
not properly checked. These effects may manifest in the form economic downturn
and negative influence on the standard of living of the citizens.

In line with this opinion, the Central Bank of
Nigeria (2009) observed that the period covering from 1990 to 2000, the average
inflation rate had been above the double digit level (26%-51%) which rendered
most deposit rates negative in real terms. According to them, this also eroded
domestic savings and investments as well as real income.  Suggestions by the monetary authorities in
Nigeria state that high rate of inflation in Nigeria before and in the early 21st
century was as a direct result of policies that focused on stimulating faster
rate of economic growth and development. The inflationary trend since
independence shows that inflation in Nigeria has attained higher levels more
than 40% especially in the early 1980s and 1990s and during this period the
economy witnessed several economic distortions.

Similarly, the control of inflation in Nigerian
shows that from one political administration to another, the Central Bank of
Nigeria (CBN) has tried to initiate various monetary and other policies in an
attempt to control inflation. However, in spite of all these efforts and
policies, inflation rate still remains high and unyielding with pronounced
implications on economic growth and development. High inflation rate has helped
to force up interest rate, thus decimating investments and reducing the real
values of aggregate consumer wealth (as government debt and money), and hence
inhibits and distorts consumer spending. It also has raised domestic prices
relative to foreign trade, inhibits exports and stimulates imports thus
depleting the nation’s scarce foreign reserves and worsening the balance of
payments. High rates of inflation also distort savings and that investors tend
to divert scarce resources from productive uses.

Furthermore, the stress on price stability or low
inflation as the main objective of monetary policy may not be that other goals
of macroeconomic policy, such as maintaining a high level of employment,
achieving sustainable economic growth and attaining favourable balance of
payments are of less essence but that it could only be comprehended that price
stability can later promote economic growth and attainment of full employment
level. Consequently, there is therefore, an emerging unanimity that Central
Banks can consistently promote sustainable economic growth objective by
pursuing sustainable price stability through inflation targeting as a policy
technique.

 Inflation
targeting in this case refers to policy measure to direct inflation rate
towards an expected level using monetary tools such as interest rate to achieve
it. The actions of the Central Bank in this regard is expected to be very
transparent as this will enable investors to factor in possible interest rate
changes in their investment portfolios leading to a better economic stability
or fluctuations in price. It could then be established that inflation targeting
helps in stabilizing the financial system thus enabling reasonable level of inflation
rate in the economy. Inflation targeting since its adoption first in New
Zealand in 1990 have become promising that some Central Banks of the
industrialized and developing economies have declared that maintaining price
stability of the lowest possible rate of inflation is their only mandate(Riti
and Kama, 2015).

From early 1990s, many developed countries
especially in Europe and the Americas have moved towards implementing inflation
targeting (IT) as a framework for monetary policy while developing counties in
Nigeria especially Nigeria were not ready for it. In Africa, South Africa and
Ghana were the first to implement inflation targeting in 2005. The move to use
this framework by countries around the world has been attributed to several
factors but prominent amongst these factors is the strong determination to bring
down inflation rate to a minimal level to encourage domestic savings and
moderation in prices such that aggregate demand and income levels can be
improved.  Nigeria had indicated its
intention to transit into inflation targeting as a framework for monetary
policy since 2005 based on the positive results to which the framework have had
on the development path of the countries that had adopted it. The country had a
smooth take-off of inflation targeting as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had
successively transited from its monetary targeting framework into that of
inflation targeting. This study attempts to provide an examination of the
impact of IT on economic performance in Nigeria and assess its relationship
with other macroeconomic variables to cross check their level of performance in
the country.

1.2       Statement of the Problem

The major
challenge of the Nigerian economy has been the issue of price instability. It
could be observed that price stability is not a major policy objective of the
monetary authority in the country over the years hence incessant increases in
price levels. This could be that the management of domestic policies in Nigeria
seem not to have a fair or better understanding of stabilization policies as
prices kept rising almost on daily basis to the detriment and impoverishment of
the citizens. At the same time wages were not increased commensurately as
frequently as the price levels were jumping. Again, this could it be that
nothing was being done to ameliorate the persistent rise in the prices of goods
and services within the domestic settings. During these periods it was expected
that the interest rates pattern and other policy instruments need to be managed
in ways that would not exacerbate high prices in the economy.

            Difficult socio-economic situation arises at high
inflation rates. It becomes a device in deterring investments, causing high
poverty incidence, reduction in the real values of aggregate consumer wealth.
This distorts consumer spending by raising domestic prices above the reach of
most citizens and in comparison to foreign prices. This also inhibits exports
while stimulating imports to the detriment of the domestic economy as high
import would deplete the nation’s scarce foreign reserves and worsen the
balance of payments statement. It also discourages savings and investments
since there may not be effective demand for the produced items causing huge
inventory build-up. Inflation targeting could be seen to be the needed policy
measure that is needed to curb the menace of incessant price hike and hence the
study is to find out the impact of inflation targeting on the Nigerian economy
and where possible proffer solution as to the linkages to abate the effect.

1.3
      Objectives of Study

Broadly,
the objective of this study is to examine inflation targeting in emerging
market economy: the Nigerian experience from 2005-2016. The specific objectives
are:

1.      To
examine the relationship between growth rate of money supply and inflation rate
in Nigeria.

2.      To
determine the relationship between cash reserve ratio and inflation rate in
Nigeria.

3.      To
access the relationship between monetary policy rate and inflation rate in
Nigeria.

4.      To
examine the relationship between interest rate and inflation rate in Nigeria.

5.      To
determine the relationship between treasury bills rate and inflation rate in
Nigeria.

6.      To
examine the relationship between productivity and inflation targeting in
Nigeria.

1.4       Research Questions

            Based
on the objectives of the study, the research questions can be generated thus:

Is
there any relationship between growth rate of money supply and inflation rate
in Nigeria ?

1.      To
what extent does cash reserve ratio influence inflation rate in Nigeria?

2.      Does
monetary policy rate affect inflation rate in Nigeria?

3.      Is
there any relationship between interest rate and inflation in Nigeria?

4.      Does
any relationship exist between treasury bills rate and inflation rate in
Nigeria?

5.      Does
inflation targeting have any impact on productivity in Nigeria?

 

1.5       Research Hypothesis

To
guide the success of the study, the following research null hypotheses (H0)
were formulated:

H01: There
is no significant relationship between growth rates of money supply, cash
reserve ratio, monetary policy rate, interest rate, treasury bills rate and
inflation rate in Nigeria.

H02: There
is no significant relationship between inflation targeting and real Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) in Nigeria.

1.5       Significance of the Study

This study has both theoretical and
practical significance. The findings of this study will help to add to the body
of knowledge on the management of inflation in Nigeria using inflation
targeting. This will help people understand what inflation targeting does in
the Nigerian economy. The practical significance of this study stems from its
value to some groups of people. These include the monetary policy officials of
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), officials of the Federal Ministry of Finance,
experts on economic and monetary matters, researchers and students.

To the officials of Central Bank of
Nigeria (CBN) and Federal Ministry of Finance, the study will help them work
towards the better implementation of inflation targeting policies in order to
make it work better. To experts on economic and monetary matters, this study
will enable them to map out further strategies through new resolutions to
strengthen inflation targeting in Nigeria. Finally to researchers and students,
this study will help them to become interested in this area and with that carry
out further research in this area.

1.6       Scope of the Study

The study is on assessing inflation targeting in
emerging market economy: the Nigerian experience from 2005 to 2016. The choice
of the period for the study is based on the period that inflation targeting was
introduced in Nigeria. Prior to this period, the Central Bank of Nigeria has
adopted different policy regimes in the monetary policy implementation ranging
from exchange rate peg, targeting various types of monetary aggregates and
presently inflation targeting. The main focus is how
inflation targeting has helped to reduce inflation rate and increase output
levels in Nigeria within this period of study.

1.7       Definition of Terms

Inflation:
This refers to a continuous or persistent rise in the price level.

Inflation Targeting:
Inflation targeting as a framework of constrained discretion in which the
constraint is the inflation target which may be a point or a range and the
discretion is the scope and flexibility to take account of economic and other
considerations.

Emerging Economies:
This describes
a nation’s economy that
is progressing toward becoming more advanced, usually by means of rapid growth
and industrialization. These countries experience an expanding role both in the
world economy and on the political frontier

Emerging Markets:
An emerging market is one that is in the
transitional phase from a developing country to a developed one.

Productivity:
Refers to the level of economic activities or level of output produced within a
given economy.


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