THE EFFECTS OF REAL EXCHANGE RATE ON NIGERIA’S NON-OIL SECTORAL OUTPUT

ABSTRACT

This study investigated the effect of exchange rate on Nigeria’s non-oil sector outputs, with emphasis on the agricultural, manufactural and service sectors over a period of 1970-2012 through the co integration and the ECM approach. The co integration test showed that there was a long run relationship between the variables. Evidence suggested that exchange rate by has a negative non-significant effect on the agricultural and manufacturing sectors and a non-significant positive effect on the service sector. The study found other factors such as inflation and ratio of private sector credit to GDP affecting non-oil sector outputs; this implies that the state of the non-oil output growth in Nigeria could be explained by other macroeconomic factors and probably due to instability experienced during the period under review. It can be concluded that exchange rate fluctuations is not an important variable affecting non-oil sectoral output of the country. Other factors affecting non-oil sector output like inflations and commercial bank credit should be looked into and addressed to revamp the non-oil sectors in Nigeria.